Celtics
Jrue Holiday and Derrick White’s defense could go a long way.
The dream matchup is actually happening, and the story lines are limitless.
Kristaps Porzingis and Kyrie Irving against their old teams. Jayson Tatum vs. Luka Doncic for the unofficial “face of the NBA” honor. Grant Williams sitting at home as his former teams clash – OK, maybe that one’s not quite as compelling.
But the reality is that none of those subplots matter when the ball is tipped. It’s all about execution when the lights are brightest.
Here are five factors that could determine which team hoists the Larry O’Brien Trophy in the end.
Jrue Holiday and Derrick White’s defense
Irving and Doncic are incredible offensive players, and they’re going to wreak havoc no matter who they face.
But, the Celtics are far more equipped than most teams to keep them relatively in check. Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are both tenacious defenders and are extremely intelligent, agile, and versatile on that end of the floor.
If Holiday and White can make Irving and Doncic look human, that’s a win for the Celtics. It will require a total team effort, but they’ll play a critical role.
“It’s not going to be easy,” Holiday told reporters. “But it will be fun.”
Jayson Tatum’s 3-point shooting
While much of the criticism surrounding Jayson Tatum this postseason has been excessive and inaccurate, one area he has been struggling is 3-point shooting.
Tatum is a career 37.5 percent 3-point shooter in the regular season, and that number dips slightly to 34.9 in the playoffs. This year, he’s at 29 percent in the postseason – by far his lowest mark ever.
Daring Tatum to shoot would be silly, but the Mavericks may live with him taking contested 3s. Just like the Celtics with Doncic and Irving, the Mavericks will have to pick their poison with Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
If Tatum’s shot selection and efficiency are where they need to be, advantage Celtics. If he’s forcing shots and shooting a low percentage, advantage Mavericks. He doesn’t need to be at 40 percent, but getting that number up to 35 would go a long way.
Delivering in the clutch
The Celtics and Mavericks have both been lethal in the clutch in the postseason, so something will have to give if they find themselves in close games in the Finals.
Dallas is 6-3 in clutch games and Boston is 4-0. The Celtics are No. 1 in assist percentage (68.8) and the Mavericks are third (62.1) – a sign that both teams continue to move the ball with everything on the line.
The Celtics generally continue to play with pace (102.2, fourth), while the Mavericks generally elect to slow it down (95.4, 10th). Boston’s ability to continue to play with pace to trade blows with Doncic and Irving in the final minutes may ultimately be the deciding factor one way or the other.
Kristaps Porzingis’s mobility
It appears likely that Kristaps Porzingis is going to play.
How close does he look to his usual self? Does he show any rust? Is he a liability defensively? Coming back after a few weeks is tough as it is; doing so in the NBA Finals against the Mavericks is a whole other animal.
Dallas will likely run a lot of pick and roll to put Porzingis in uncomfortable spots. It’s up to the Celtics to rotate accordingly if he’s beat and watch out for P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. in the corner.
Porzingis doesn’t need to be perfect, but he does need to be mobile enough to defend at a decently high level both inside and out.
“When KP’s at his best, he’s been tremendous for us,” coach Joe Mazzulla told reporters. “We expect that from him and we know he’ll give that to us.”
Limiting Lively
Doncic absolutely loves playing with Dereck Lively II.
It’s uncommon for a rookie to dramatically sway the outcome in the playoffs, though it does happen (Christian Braun last year with the Nuggets).
Lively shot a perfect 10 of 10 in two games against the Celtics this season and a perfect 16 of 16 against the Timberwolves. Sure, those are mostly dunks, but it’s still quite commendable.
He’s elite in the pick and roll, a dangerous lob threat, a tremendous rim protector, and an energizer. The Celtics don’t really have an ideal matchup to contain him, so it’ll need to be a combination of Al Horford, Porzingis, and others playing bigger than they are.
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