It’s time.
Time for football. Time to learn Mac Jones. Time for the Patriots to prove they are who they believe themselves to be.
All of that starts Sunday in one of the most anticipated season openers in recent franchise history. The Patriots are home underdogs against the reigning NFC champion Eagles, who came within moments of capturing the Lombardi Trophy. If the Pats are to pull an upset, it will start with Jones and new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien but should end with their defense grounding a high-flying Philadelphia attack.
When the Patriots run
Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott must be at their most elusive Sunday, considering their offensive line will be wildly overmatched no matter what lineup combinations are thrown out there. Starting guards Cole Strange and Mike Onwenu have hardly practiced in pads this offseason, while Calvin Anderson, fourth-round rookie Sidy Sow and newly-acquired veterans Vederian Lowe and Tyrone Wheatley Jr. could all see snaps at right tackle. Then, there’s the matter of the Eagles’ defensive line.
Pro Bowlers Fletcher Cox, Brandon Graham and Haason Reddick are all walking mismatches, while 6-foot-6, 340-pound Jordan Davis and first-round rookie Jalen Carter rotate at defensive tackle. Rookie defensive end Nolan Smith is another first-rounder, though the Pats might prefer to run in his direction given he weighs just 235 pounds.
It will be a good sign if the Patriots’ linemen are reaching the second level, where the Eagles should be susceptible. Philadelphia lost veteran starters at both linebacker spots, and are now asking veteran journeyman Zach Cunningham and an undersized Nakobe Dean to fill in. Look for the Patriots to also employ plenty of misdirection schemes (trap, wham and counter) to make the Eagles’ dangerous defensive line think twice before charging upfield.
When the Patriots pass
Again, everything starts with Philadelphia’s front.
This week, Bill Belichick called the Eagles’ pass rush the best in the league. The Patriots’ No. 1 goal on offense has to be to slow that rush and stay on schedule.
Therefore, expect a heavy dose of screens, quick passes, run-pass options (RPOs) and no-huddle. No NFL defense is in playing shape quite yet in Week 1, especially a Philadelphia team that hardly played its starters in the preseason. The faster the Patriots operate — and their offense played at one of the faster tempos this preseason — the better.
Another key: yards after the catch. JuJu Smith-Schuster, who primarily aligned in the slot this summer, could be a bellwether for this whole offense. The Pats signed him over Jakobi Meyers because of his run-after-catch ability. Get Smith-Schuster in space on shorter routes, and allow him to eat against a zone-heavy Eagles defense.
Considering Philly’s inexperience at safety, another Patriots pass-catcher to watch is tight end Hunter Henry. Henry had the most consistent connection with Jones all summer, and said he’s ready to go for Sunday, when he should have ample opportunities working versus those safeties in 1-on-1 coverage and/or up the seams.
When the Eagles run
The Patriots defense spent a notable chunk of training camp drilling against option run plays carried out by mobile rookie quarterback Malik Cunningham. It’s time for all that work to pay off.
Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is at the controls of everything in his offense, including a multi-layered option running game that totaled more than 2,500 yards last season. Lamar Jackson gashed the Patriots last season with his own QB-centric, read attack that left them in tatters during a 37-26 Ravens win. The key, according to veterans, will be containing those concepts more than the quarterback.
Patriots know they need more than Malik Cunningham to prepare for Jalen Hurts
Force Hurts to make the decision you want him to make — either handing the ball off or keeping it — then wrap up and tackle.
“I feel like what we need to do is focus on the concepts of what they do and the RPOs and just the different little wrinkles that they have. I think that’s where we get the real advantage,” Pats safety Adrian Phillips said this week. “Because Jalen, he’s a mobile quarterback 100%. But at the same time he makes a lot of great throws from the pocket.”
When the Eagles pass
Through the first week of Patriots training camp, first-round rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez was one of the best players on the field.
He smothered receivers, batted passes passes and moved effortlessly across the secondary. Gonzalez slowed when the Patriots put pads on. He played to mixed results in two preseason games.
Now, Belichick needs the old Gonzo back. Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith will finish as one of the best wideout duos the Pats face all season. Brown is a monster route-runner and after the catch, while Smith’s speed can lift the top off of any defense.
Patriots outlook: NFL sources expecting franchise to finish in middle of the pack
Expect the Patriots to double one of them on key downs and trust either Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones or Jack Jones to handle the other. Inevitably, though, Gonzalez will get his chance against one of the star wideouts. And inside the red zone, look for the Eagles to pick on the rookie or find tight end Dallas Goedert. Last year, the Pats allowed 11 touchdown catches to tight ends, second-most in the NFL.
Of course, much like the Mac Jones and Co., the Eagles offense must be wary of a dangerous opposing pass rush. How well Matt Judon, Josh Uche and others fare against one of the best pass-blocking lines in the league — that does feature a new starter at right guard — could foretell how potent that rush will be this season.
Final pick
Eagles 27, Patriots 23