FOXBORO — Week 2 might be slightly early to declare a game a “must-win,” but the Patriots’ outlook will appear much better if they can beat the Dolphins on Sunday night.
The Patriots lost a close one to the Eagles that might be categorized differently if “moral victories” counted in the standings. But that performance last week means nothing if the Patriots can’t improve upon it as the season progresses.
Stringing wins together against the Dolphins in Week 2 and the Jets without Aaron Rodgers in Week 3 would make fans forget about a frustrating Week 1 result.
These four players need to come through Sunday for the Patriots.
QB Mac Jones
Yes, we picked Mac Jones last week, as well. No, he won’t be on here every week.
As we wrote earlier this week, Jones lacks a true signature win as a member of the Patriots. He has just one game-winning drive and fourth-quarter comeback to his name. He’s 2-12 in his career as an underdog.
And guess what? The Patriots are underdogs at home for the second straight week.
A win over the Dolphins with an impressive performance would qualify as a signature win for Jones. And if he has an opportunity to win the game late — like he did in Week 1 against the Eagles — then he must finish.
Jones will have a banged-up offensive line for the second straight week. We’ll find out 90 minutes before the game just how depleted that unit will be and if wide receiver DeVante Parker can suit up. The QB will have plenty of excuses if the Patriots don’t win again.
The Dolphins’ defense, run by Vic Fangio, quite frankly underperformed last week against the Chargers. They ranked dead last in expected points added (EPA) per play against the run. They were 24th in EPA per play against the pass and 30th overall in EPA per play against.
The Chargers proved that despite Miami’s offseason additions in personnel and coaching teams can move the ball on them. Jones has to seize the opportunity.
OT Calvin Anderson
Anderson is the only offensive lineman resembling a starter who wasn’t on the injury report this week. Left tackle Trent Brown is in concussion protocol, left guard Cole Strange missed Week 1 with a knee injury, right guard Mike Onwenu missed Week 1 with an ankle injury, and David Andrews was removed from the injury report but was dealing with a hamstring ailment earlier in the week. Plus, Riley Reiff is on injured reserve.
Brown, Strange, Onwenu and rookie Sidy Sow (concussion) are questionable to play Sunday.
Anderson spent nearly all summer on the non-football illness list but still played all 80 offensive snaps in Week 1 — a mighty impressive feat.
“I definitely made sure to let him know how much I appreciated his effort Sunday, because that’s tough,” Andrews said this week. “Obviously he’s a veteran player, but it’s really hard missing a training camp. You need a training camp. And a new system. So I really appreciated his effort. I think it says a lot (about) his work ethic to get back out there and go wire-to-wire like he did Sunday for us.”
Anderson let up one QB hit and four hurries against the Eagles. Whether he moves to left tackle or stays at right tackle, he should play a little bit better Sunday night. The Dolphins don’t quite have the Eagles’ ferocious pass rush, but Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, Christian Wilkins and Emmanuel Ogbah are no slouches.
CB Christian Gonzalez
The Patriots got some pretty devastating injury timing when cornerback Jonathan Jones popped up on the injury report Thursday with an ankle ailment and then missed practice Friday. He’s officially questionable to play Week 2. With Jack Jones on injured reserve, the Patriots could be down to Gonzalez, Myles Bryant, Jon Jones, Shaun Wade and Ameer Speed at cornerback. Safety Jalen Mills also could move back over to cornerback in a pinch.
But now Gonzalez, in just his second NFL game, takes on greater importance in the defense. It’s unclear how the Patriots will match up with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle if Jonathan Jones can’t play. They could double Hill with Bryant or Marcus Jones and let Gonzalez handle Waddle. Or they could put Gonzalez (with some help) on Hill and let Marcus Jones or Bryant cover Waddle.
There’s no best answer. But the Patriots like to mix their coverages, move players around and bracket some of the NFL’s best wide receivers when the situation calls for it.
Hill has averaged over 100 yards per game since joining the Dolphins, who are adept at giving him a head start with wheel motion plays that allow him to start running before the snap.
“I didn’t think the Chargers gave enough attention to him all game,” retired Patriots safety Devin McCourty said about Hill’s Week 1 matchup when he had 11 catches for 205 yards with two touchdowns. “And they treated him like he was just another guy. He showed them why he’s not. I highly doubt New England goes out there and does that Sunday night.”
Jonathan Jones said earlier this week that cornerbacks have to be physical with Hill and Jaylen Waddle. This will be a massive test for Gonzalez, who passed his first exam Week 1 against Eagles receivers A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith.
DT Christian Barmore
Head coach Mike McDaniel and the Dolphins value running the ball, and the Dolphins have fairly solid interior blockers in center Connor Williams, right guard Robert Hunt and old friend Isaiah Wynn at left guard.
Barmore had a great game in Week 1, grading out as PFF’s fourth-best run-stuff interior defender. He ranked 10th with four pass-rush pressures.
Week 1 served as something of a changing of the guard at defensive tackle with Barmore starting over and receiving more snaps than Lawrence Guy. He’s one of the highest-upside defenders the Patriots have. If he can take his much-anticipated jump as a third-year pro, then watch out.